Marching Toward Madness

The Spread Smart dudes spend a lot of time trying to determine what the Spread will be for each game.  Now most people will get this wrong and assume it is still 2007 Vegas where books really wanted to be books and were trying to drive 50/50 splits of bets and just profit off the vig but in 2018 we know that books will take a position when that position aligns to where they see a sellable line that will drive bets yet still be less than logical meaning they will win more than than lose and profit from the line.    We see this when we look at the public information given out about % of bets and % of money on each total, spread and half on sites like www.sportsinsights.com etc.    What Vegas sportsbooks do tend to do is make sure their sharp money is as 50/50 as possible and/or they have enough squares offsetting sharp money; they generally don't want to be against sharps BUT squares like March Madness are small fish to these sharks.  Marc...

The 1 Seed Money Line Myth Somewhere along the path to March, someone will come up with the same brilliant idea that has never been thought up before, "what if I just played a Money Line Bet with all of the 1 seeds, that would guarantee a win".   "I mean a 1 seed has never lost in the first round bro!" 1.  Vegas would never allow anything close to a guarantee stay on the board.  They are smarter than you, have hired the best and brightest and they may have some clear fixed guarantees they are in on but they'd never let you bet on something if they knew they could not win.   So alas, they don't have Money Lines on 1 v 16 match-ups.  Some offshore books do but why are you in Vegas if you are using your offshore book, stay home in Sandusky, Ohio and bet from the local Buffalo Wild Wings.   2.  If they did, bro probably shouldn't do it as it locks up too much cashflow that could be better used.   Lets use simple ma...

The Change In 2016, College Basketball changed dramatically, and that change impacted significantly the quality of play on the court and the ability for gamblers to predict that activity.   5 Seconds.    The move of the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds is significant.   And gamblers often talk about March Madness trends from earlier this decade without understanding that much of that is invalid data, due to 5 seconds.   The shot clock drives a concept called Average Possession Length.  APL drives number of possessions/game.   One of the best ways to understand and predict future results of points scored by each team is to predict possession counts and then apply possession based stats against those predicted possessions in any given game.    Ken Pom has great data here I'll use to show the impacts of 5 seconds.   If we focus on the Tempo (Possessions/Game Total) you can see it increas...

The Seeds There is nothing more exciting than Selection Sunday.   For me that starts the best week of the year.   (And an aside, my second favorite week of the year is the week before when I'm watching the conference tournaments).    Selection Sunday is the result of an important process that is debated but in reality is very regimented and for gamblers important to understand.   This is the NCAA D1 Men's Basketball Tournament Committee Principles and Procedures.   So many times, I hear/read posts from people who don't understand the realities of how it works.   I'm not going to explain it all here; use this reference:    Long Form -- NCAA  There are 3 steps, they are unique and although at times overlapping done mutually exclusive to each other.    What I think most people will find interesting is that although there is much discussion, the process of selecting and seeding teams...

The Article So the setting, Thursday of 2013;  We are sitting 4th Row Up at Lagasse Stadium watching the mid morning round of games.  I had just recently completed training to do PR for CWT at the time and a reporter is looking for a story.  The GM Jerry got to know our group since we had been there since the first year, so he sends the reporter over to our section, and since I'm trained to do this, it is a great match... and then this happened:  Link to the Article We didn't expect to be above the fold on the Front Page of Friday's edition of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.  Also didn't expect to be woken up by Chris' Aunt (maybe this details is wrong?) to tell us first thing on Friday morning.    I have always loved the way he wrote the story -- he told it the way we intended.  Enjoy:  By ALAN SNEL LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL March 22, 2013 - 1:05 am       Tim Husted has spent his enti...

Catching Up, The Intro (Updated for 2020) March 2020 will be my 22nd year of a pilgrimage from my home to Las Vegas for March Madness' opening weekend.   Over those 22 years, I've learned a few things along the way and so over the next month, I'll share what I've learned along with a considerable focus on gambling concepts, mostly sharing data and helping to dispel myths and half truths.   But before we get too far into the hard core stuff, let me just walk through the basics.  22 Years.  Here is a run down of the From -- To As best I can remember, I have stayed at the Riviera, Ballys, New York/New York, Caesars Palace, Belagio and now consistently stay at Vdara.    From 5 guys to a room to my own bed/bedroom; this is the area that probably has changed the most.  Well that and the fact that now I actually sleep.   Although most commonly I have gone with Rick Donegan and Chris Iannuzzi with my ...