Marching Toward Madness

Do Line Moves Matter? As long as I've been reading about "apps" and guys going to March Madness, I have heard about these guys who believe very strongly in "line shopping".   This is the concept of ensuring you find the best "value" for your bet.  The theory is why bet $5 on Duke to cover 26 points in the first round at William Hill when you can bet $5 on Duke to cover 25 points in the first round at CG Sports.    There are guys who are splitting their bankroll over a few different places so they can pick which line they want to play.    This kinda arbitrage seems silly to me for the purposes of bankroll.   Having to have significant extra money layed out that you won't ever play just to keep the option of shaving off a hook here or there.   Seems a pain to manage reporting and/or even the need to quickly get a bet in etc. But before you had the guys shopping lines, you had the guys trying to bet on a prediction of the lines...

The Slow Teams Go Under Many a novice will believe the above statement and assume it is too logical, ie "super simple".  But clearly Vegas knows slow teams go slow and sets lower totals.  So it can't be that simple.    I often see posts in the MMILV group that I am part of on Facebook that also seem to lack understanding of Totals and results compared to trends.  This should provide some real data to drive a real conversation.   Again 2 years since this is all data that is SUPER impacted by possessions and we know since "The Change" the models would reset.    Lets start with the basic, Do slow teams go under?    We have to review off a par , since the past 2 years have not been a 50/50 result in my dataset (which could be a point or hook off to yours since we all bet at different books and at different times into slightly different lines).  My over par will be 59.22% which is the 61-42-1 recor...