Marching Toward Madness

Do Line Moves Matter? As long as I've been reading about "apps" and guys going to March Madness, I have heard about these guys who believe very strongly in "line shopping".   This is the concept of ensuring you find the best "value" for your bet.  The theory is why bet $5 on Duke to cover 26 points in the first round at William Hill when you can bet $5 on Duke to cover 25 points in the first round at CG Sports.    There are guys who are splitting their bankroll over a few different places so they can pick which line they want to play.    This kinda arbitrage seems silly to me for the purposes of bankroll.   Having to have significant extra money layed out that you won't ever play just to keep the option of shaving off a hook here or there.   Seems a pain to manage reporting and/or even the need to quickly get a bet in etc. But before you had the guys shopping lines, you had the guys trying to bet on a prediction of the lines...

  Seeds in 2020 One of the most common discussions I see online is discussions around the "seeds" in various games.  As a Data Driven Punter ("DDP"), we know how the NCAA tournament uses the "seeds" and it is NOT the absolute science that everyone assumes it is.  In 2020, we could very well see significant adjustments to the S Curve based on the NCAA Seeding Guidelines.... Here is a reminder of how it works:  Use this reference:    Long Form -- NCAA  There are 3 steps, they are unique and although at times overlapping done mutually exclusive to each other.    The hardest part is Step 3, which is why we learn the most important thing we need to understand about how to assess "seeds" when we are punting;  "A team may be moved up or down one (or in extraordinary circumstances) two lines from its true seed line (e.g., from the 13 seed line to the 12 seed line; or from a 12 seed line to a 13 seed line) when it is pla...

The Spread Smart dudes spend a lot of time trying to determine what the Spread will be for each game.  Now most people will get this wrong and assume it is still 2007 Vegas where books really wanted to be books and were trying to drive 50/50 splits of bets and just profit off the vig but in 2018 we know that books will take a position when that position aligns to where they see a sellable line that will drive bets yet still be less than logical meaning they will win more than than lose and profit from the line.    We see this when we look at the public information given out about % of bets and % of money on each total, spread and half on sites like www.sportsinsights.com etc.    What Vegas sportsbooks do tend to do is make sure their sharp money is as 50/50 as possible and/or they have enough squares offsetting sharp money; they generally don't want to be against sharps BUT squares like March Madness are small fish to these sharks.  Marc...