Marching Toward Madness

So the spreadsheet has been updated, the numbers crunched and I have flown to Vegas; I am ready to post the Bracket selections for the 2018 March Madness.  If you are in a work pool and/or are not sure what you are doing, start here...  Here is my methodology:   For 1st Round,   Determine % of chance for each team to win that round based on a poll of polls for many trusted models and gut insight from 3 top handicappers (Rick Donegan, Robb Silverstein and myself).    From there I have to decide how many upsets I want to play; the matrix has an 8.3% upset rate in round 1 which means rounded up you have 3 upsets + 2 flipped games (FSU is Fav as a 9 seed, Butler is fav as 10 seed).    So most common upsets in the model are Arkansas (10), Texas (10), Loyola-Chicago (11) and then I"m adding in a gut pick of New Mexico St (12) as I only cost myself 1 round as I have Auburn winning the Round 2 game and the mo play for the 11 seed t...

The 1 Seed Money Line Myth Somewhere along the path to March, someone will come up with the same brilliant idea that has never been thought up before, "what if I just played a Money Line Bet with all of the 1 seeds, that would guarantee a win".   "I mean a 1 seed has never lost in the first round bro!" 1.  Vegas would never allow anything close to a guarantee stay on the board.  They are smarter than you, have hired the best and brightest and they may have some clear fixed guarantees they are in on but they'd never let you bet on something if they knew they could not win.   So alas, they don't have Money Lines on 1 v 16 match-ups.  Some offshore books do but why are you in Vegas if you are using your offshore book, stay home in Sandusky, Ohio and bet from the local Buffalo Wild Wings.   2.  If they did, bro probably shouldn't do it as it locks up too much cashflow that could be better used.   Lets use simple ma...