Marching Toward Madness

The Best Favs in March Madness So when it comes to March Madness, many square bettors will talk about teams from year to year and/or historical performance and assume there is some correlation to performance.  This is a logical fallacy however there are some concepts which I guess you could feel were material and valid in your handicapping. I assume (and there is data coming) that some coaches are better at preparing their team, scouting opponents etc; no matter their players and opponents they would be more likely to win and cover games in the tournament.   This is a legit factor maybe. I assume that some programs are so "prestigious" that opposing players are materially and unique impacted by the opportunity to play that team that they grew up "dreaming about" and didn't get to play for;  but I'm not sure if that would make you be intimidated and play poorly or make you raise your game, for each kid it would be different. That said, I'm here t...

  Seeds in 2020 One of the most common discussions I see online is discussions around the "seeds" in various games.  As a Data Driven Punter ("DDP"), we know how the NCAA tournament uses the "seeds" and it is NOT the absolute science that everyone assumes it is.  In 2020, we could very well see significant adjustments to the S Curve based on the NCAA Seeding Guidelines.... Here is a reminder of how it works:  Use this reference:    Long Form -- NCAA  There are 3 steps, they are unique and although at times overlapping done mutually exclusive to each other.    The hardest part is Step 3, which is why we learn the most important thing we need to understand about how to assess "seeds" when we are punting;  "A team may be moved up or down one (or in extraordinary circumstances) two lines from its true seed line (e.g., from the 13 seed line to the 12 seed line; or from a 12 seed line to a 13 seed line) when it is pla...

The Slow Teams Don't Cover Once again we deal with things that are logical but are they always true?.  I have heard many a person talk about how teams that play fast cover as they have more possessions to extend their lead where as favorites that play slow can't cover since they don't have time.  Now we all know this is illogical since Vegas knows their pace and sets the lines with that in mind.    But is there correlation for other reasons? As we did with Totals, lets look at the relationship between favs and dogs that play fast v slow compared to their opponents and their ability to cover & lets look at what possessions really mean to the cover/no cover bet and finally look at how the game types look.   This approach is very similar to what I did in the blog post "The Slow Teams go Under".    To understand some of what I'm saying here, you should read that post.   As always, this is 2 years of data set on p...

The Slow Teams Go Under Many a novice will believe the above statement and assume it is too logical, ie "super simple".  But clearly Vegas knows slow teams go slow and sets lower totals.  So it can't be that simple.    I often see posts in the MMILV group that I am part of on Facebook that also seem to lack understanding of Totals and results compared to trends.  This should provide some real data to drive a real conversation.   Again 2 years since this is all data that is SUPER impacted by possessions and we know since "The Change" the models would reset.    Lets start with the basic, Do slow teams go under?    We have to review off a par , since the past 2 years have not been a 50/50 result in my dataset (which could be a point or hook off to yours since we all bet at different books and at different times into slightly different lines).  My over par will be 59.22% which is the 61-42-1 recor...

The Article So the setting, Thursday of 2013;  We are sitting 4th Row Up at Lagasse Stadium watching the mid morning round of games.  I had just recently completed training to do PR for CWT at the time and a reporter is looking for a story.  The GM Jerry got to know our group since we had been there since the first year, so he sends the reporter over to our section, and since I'm trained to do this, it is a great match... and then this happened:  Link to the Article We didn't expect to be above the fold on the Front Page of Friday's edition of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.  Also didn't expect to be woken up by Chris' Aunt (maybe this details is wrong?) to tell us first thing on Friday morning.    I have always loved the way he wrote the story -- he told it the way we intended.  Enjoy:  By ALAN SNEL LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL March 22, 2013 - 1:05 am       Tim Husted has spent his enti...

Catching Up, The Intro (Updated for 2020) March 2020 will be my 22nd year of a pilgrimage from my home to Las Vegas for March Madness' opening weekend.   Over those 22 years, I've learned a few things along the way and so over the next month, I'll share what I've learned along with a considerable focus on gambling concepts, mostly sharing data and helping to dispel myths and half truths.   But before we get too far into the hard core stuff, let me just walk through the basics.  22 Years.  Here is a run down of the From -- To As best I can remember, I have stayed at the Riviera, Ballys, New York/New York, Caesars Palace, Belagio and now consistently stay at Vdara.    From 5 guys to a room to my own bed/bedroom; this is the area that probably has changed the most.  Well that and the fact that now I actually sleep.   Although most commonly I have gone with Rick Donegan and Chris Iannuzzi with my ...